Market Update.
Business Times’ latest poll shows 3 out of 4 fund managers (2 fundamentals-based: Mark Mobius of Templeton, and Jim McCaughan of Principal Global, and 1 chartist, Paul Nesbitt of Fortis) believe the worst may be over for the equity markets. (The “bear”, Chris Caspar of Russel Investments, while warning of a retest of recent lows, expects a V shaped economic recovery in the US, which will be positive for Asian stock markets.)
Straits Times quoted a few market commentators as saying GIC’s views (reported yesterday) were too gloomy, eg the UBS economist noted that unemployment rate in the US hit a post-war high of 10.8% in Dec ’82 vs 5% today.
Merrill Lynch, one of the worst hit during the current credit crunch, yesterday raised US$9.55 bln selling unsecured notes (with yields more than 300 basis points above treasuries of similar maturities) and perpetual preferred shares yielding 8.625%. This brings the total raised by financial institutions to US$28 bln in the past 2 days, which shows there is ample cash on the sidelines.
As a result of the above, the world’s largest banks and securities firms have so far raised US$194 bln after reporting more than US$290 bln in losses and write-downs. This should provide much comfort to investors around the world.
Talking of decisive measures to deal with the current crisis, we are reminded of the HK Monetary Authority’s (HKMA) master stroke during the Asian Crisis to protect the HK$ and boost market confidence, in setting up the Tracker Fund to mop up stakes in the top blue chip stocks listed on the HK Exchange.
Everything moves in cycles after all.
And HKMA has been laughing all the way to the bank since the stupendous recovery of the HK stock market.
One wonders if the US Treasury will some day in the not-too-distant future, set up a monster fund to mop up the delinquent mortgages in the US, to stem further deterioration of the housing market, the root cause of the current crisis.
Stumble it!