Singapore Stock Market News

Charts for CSC and Yongnam - for my own reference.





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Singpost will be posting their fourth quarter results for the financial year ending 31st March 2008 on 30th April, 2008, after the close of trading.

I was talking to dream and musicwhiz last night when the idea of using Dungeons&Dragons (D&D) as an analogy to the two streams of thought for investing/trading was discussed. I did some research on found that, well, not only does D&D analogy applies to investing/trading, it also applies to web development. I got most of my information from the site, which I think all in IT should at least read it - it's damn interesting!

Fighters


Description:

Not the flashiest or most prestigious role, Fighters have the lowest barrier to entry. They accumulate experience quickly, and don’t have a lot of class bonuses. But their simplicity belies a focus and strength that is crucial. The fighter is the guy in the party that protects the more “thinky” types from anything that might get in their way. There can be honor and satisfaction in bashing orcs one at a time.

nuffnang_bid_sing = "6ab2c870667e6fd25a550454f47307af";

Analogy:

I do agree with the author that fighters are not the most flashiest of the lot, but they certainly have the lowest barrier to entry. Almost any races can join to become a fighter. Fighters act as a tank to protect the weaker wizards from monsters, especially during the earlier stages of their 'career'.

Personally, I think fighters represents technicians. This is based on 2 reasons:

1. Chart reading is the more accessible than reading annual reports and financial statements
2. You can accumulate experience fairly quickly (don't flame me on this!) because you need less knowledge before you can start reading charts


Mages


Description:

The mage is the general purpose wizard. They are resourceful and possess a broad understanding of all types of magic. While not specialized in their studies, they are deeply theoretical, research oriented, and possess incredible focus and discipline. Their power comes from being able to summon a wide variety of spells, but they tend to be weak and vulnerable in the chaos of melee, since they must prepare spells ahead of time.

Analogy:

There are more specialized classes of magic users - like wizards, so don't be too harsh when they wrote 'while they are not specialized in their studies'. I think FA will fit into this role because:

1. Mages will fit into the researching type that fundamentalist seems to exude.
2. Mages are weaker at first (short term might not do well) and as they level progresses (as time goes on), they are gain more and more powerful spells. I think this fits into the long term perspective of fundamentalist.

Haha, but it depends on your reasonings.

I think dream gave a very good counter analogy. He said that since mages are more nimble and agile, dodging monsters and casting spells, mages will be most like TA :) Perfectly reasonable! So what do you think?

The local investing community was a buzz yesterday following this statement from Dr. Tony Tan, Deputy Chairman of the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) that "the world may face its deepest recession in 30 years".

But what I'm deeply puzzled about is this:

If that really is the view of GIC, then why on earth did it make those significant investments in UBS and Citigroup. If its view of the situation is so pessimistic, then wouldn't its investments be poorly timed and irrational?

This is clearly a case whereby its thoughts versus its actions are not at all cohesive.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that GIC is wrong and that all will be okay.

But I do think that this damning and pessimistic statement should not be taken so seriously.

After the Dow's strong showing last night (see here), I received an sms from a trusted broker friend of mine informing me that he believes that we are almost 80% through this current crisis.

His view was substantiated when I logged into Sgfunds this morning and read what Starry had to say:

1st statement posted last night:

If tonight DJI closes above 12800, be ready for the above moment.

Things will go crazy one more time.

Forget about all the noises and all the never ending debates on sub-prime and recession. Never believe in them from the first day except that they make good reading.

The doom day will come, but everyone before they die will have a good day. But then people have called me crazy after they read what I said above, so up to you to believe in my judgement and evidence.

2nd statement posted this morning:

In response to this statement: Something is very wrong...banks announce losses and share price surges??? eg Citigroup and Merril.

I know abt EMH and rational expectations but this is a bit stretching it don't u think.

It has nothing to do with the banks. Sub-prime was never the main factor of dragging the market down over the last few months anyway. I have said that so many times till I am blue on my face.

I read TODAY's and it says that local property sales have drop like 46% compare to the last quarter because people are all waiting at the sidelines? Wait a minute....it says people are doing the "wait and see", hence poor sales. It didn't say people "gave up". Can't be any better setting for the property market to continue shooting up.

I know many people are hoping the property prices to come down, but looking at the current situation, it's not going to happen anytime soon. People who are doing the wait and see now is going to be sorry.

3rd statement posted this morning:

In response to this statement: the surge most likely, is due to pent up money looking for a good return. those money on the sidelines are itching to find something good. its the flow of funds and the presence of it that matters. anything else is pretty secondary.

look at tech.

The surge more likely due to the breach in the critical 12750-12800 level. It's a breach against a near triple resistance. It's a matter of time anyway, just look at the weekly charts and you know what I mean.

Expect it to come back down to near these levels before gaining strength again.

Conclusion:

The timing of these views nicely coincide with my own view that it may be a good time to buy in again once the next set of corporate results are in and stock prices are reevaluated based on their earnings revisions.

Watch this space for updates on stocks worth buying soon!

The hunt is on. The hounds are braying. But can the prized hare be caught?

Right now, he is probably boarding the corporate jet, one wife, two kids and 4As in tow, winging his way to a plum posting in Shanghai, New York, or London.

Or he is poring over policy papers, or medical research books, or legal briefs, secluded in an office with a big window. Politics is far from his mind.

Wherever he is, it will not be an easy search for Singapore's fourth prime minister.

The weight of the search falls on the shoulders of Dr Ng Eng Hen.

He is coordinating the ruling People's Action Party's (PAP) recruitment efforts for the next General Election, due to be held by 2011.

While his task is not to find the next PM per se, he has to put together a team of new MPs. From past precedent, the number will be in the 20-25 range.

From that group will have to emerge future ministers, who will then have to 'decide among themselves who is primus inter pares - first among equals', as Dr Ng puts it.

This political manhunt is 'the top-most priority' for the PAP, he adds.

The party's recruitment process thus far has relied on its network of contacts. The net is cast wide, covering the civil service, the corporate sector, and professions such as law, banking and medicine.

The promising ones are then put through tea sessions, interviews, and even psychological tests.

Election after election, this process has unearthed hundreds of MPs, some of whom have become top ministers.

What makes the latest search different is the need to find someone who can become PM after Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong retires. Incumbent ministers are mostly around the same age as PM Lee or even older.

Another factor is the rapidly changing nature of the electorate. As MP Indranee Rajah puts it, the next PM must be 'a man of his time', attuned to a generation that is better educated, more well-travelled, more demanding.

So will the PAP's recruitment process have to be refined? What assumptions might have to be re-examined?

Key attributes

Some fundamentals are set in stone. Any PAP candidate, says Dr Ng, will have to be 'trustworthy, capable and caring'.

'These are non-negotiable,' he says. 'If you don't have these, you're not on the slate.'

Another attribute critical for the next PM: He will need to be a 'global citizen'.

Whether it is about inflation, the price of rice or free-trade agreements, Singapore is so 'globally linked that its leaders need to be internationally exposed and globally aware', says Dr Ng, who is the Minister for Education and Second Minister for Defence. 'That will become increasingly important.'

The next generation of voters

That generation and those leaders from within that generation are going to be substantially different from previous generations. If I take someone born in 1970, he wouldn't have experienced the angst of founding Singapore. His mental images are not of Bukit Ho Swee, Singapore Improvement Trust flats, the Green Bus company, the Chinese Middle School riots.

He will belong to the digital age, an age of globalisation and climate change. In terms of educational qualities alone, almost half currently get a university degree. In 20 years' time, it may be 60, even 70 per cent.

Whether we like it or not, the electorate does give a premium to its leaders being intellectually able. It doesn't mean that somebody without academic qualifications cannot rise. But it does mean that intellectually, he has to command respect. That's just an observation, not a value judgment.

Whether the party is looking outside its traditional fishing grounds - beyond the SAF, the civil service and the usual professions - for candidates

Our aim is to be comprehensive. We know what we are looking for and we want to cast our nets very wide. We are not so concerned which pond the person is swimming in.

How do we know that we are not missing somebody who could add value to the Government as a minister or as an MP? Obviously, if you are a quiet worker who doesn't attract any attention, then yes, we might miss you. But Singapore is not very big. I think those people who have enough substance to be noticed do get recommended.

Why the focus is on those in their 30s and early 40s

Self-renewal is vital. You need to constantly refresh not only the MPs but also, from the MPs, the Cabinet.

You also need a lot of energy to lead. You can have a crisis, so energy is important.

You need to strike a balance (between the old and the young).

I don't think you want to choose by formula. But neither do you want a situation where you don't have younger blood in the Cabinet.

The PM's remark that 'these are not revolutionary times' and so people are not stepping out to enter politics

We ought to celebrate the fact that in Singapore, we don't have mass policies to correct, we don't have failed education systems, we don't have brown-outs, we don't have natural calamities that we have to respond to ever so often.

If your question is, do I wish for these to be revolutionary times, I say well, thank goodness, I don't. That's my first reaction.

My second reaction is that really, Singaporeans are also being very sensible. They are not campaigning vigorously against certain things because, as the PM says, they feel it's safe enough to leave it to somebody else to run the country.

If there is corruption, incompetence or negligence, I believe there are Singaporeans who will rise to the challenge and say, well, I'm going to take over.

So it's not political apathy. It is really (them) saying, well, I can contribute to the economic good, and I'm also helping out in many, many groups.

For these, we sometimes prevail upon them and say, look, we think that there need to be leaders and if you don't do it, somebody else could be doing it but he may not be as capable as you are.

So far, I think we have been able to maintain our standard of governance.

Will there come a time when Singaporeans just don't care? My sense is not.

I don't think it's quite true that Singaporeans are non-activists. If you remember the last tsunami off Aceh, many Singaporeans went on their own even before the Government did.

Whether the Government becoming more open politically will encourage Singaporeans to be more engaged in political affairs

We are open. You can form political parties. Political parties exist. You can go on the Net, say whatever you want to say; of course, within the constraints in terms of racial aspects and other aspects.

I know of many who faithfully and diligently help out in social groups, charities, school boards, etc. They spend many hours toiling with passion. But the press does not always highlight their efforts, perhaps because they think they are not newsworthy. But are they politically apathetic?